Public reference · U.S. tariff intelligence
Most tariff analysis sits behind broker retainers and legal subscriptions. TariffLab publishes the live stack at HTS-level granularity — authorities, annex placements, country arrangements, stacking and displacement rules, and the IEEPA refund boundary — open to anyone who needs it.
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Proclamations, FR notices, CBP CSMS, court orders, USTR actions
Scale
The United States is operating under the most restrictive tariff regime since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. The four indicators below summarise the scale.
Effective rate
11.8%
Apr 2026 · highest sustained since 1943
Increase since 2017
8×
Up from 1.5% pre-trade-war baseline
Household cost
$760 – $940
Annual, 2025 dollars · assumes no substitution
GDP drag
−0.11%
Long-run real GDP · ~$30B per year
Source: Yale Budget Lab, State of U.S. Tariffs (April 8, 2026). Estimates pre-substitution.
Historical context
The effective tariff rate — duties collected as a share of total goods imports — is the single cleanest measure of trade-policy stance. Today’s 11.8% is the highest sustained level in the post-war era.
Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission historical dutiable-imports series (1929 – 2024); Yale Budget Lab estimate for April 2026. Rates represent duties collected as a percentage of total goods imports, not nominal statutory rates.
Economic impact
Three channels carry the adjustment: household purchasing power, aggregate output, and sectoral price pass-through. Estimates from the Yale Budget Lab’s April 2026 analysis.
Households
$760 – $940
per household, per year
Annual cost in 2025 dollars, assuming no substitution behaviour. Burden is regressive — lower-income quintiles bear a higher share as a percentage of income, because traded goods make up a larger share of their consumption basket.
Economy
−0.11%
long-run real GDP · ~$30B per year
Long-run output loss from price distortion, supply-chain rerouting, and investment effects. The drag compounds year over year and is roughly the size of the annual budgets of Wyoming and Vermont combined.
Prices
Apparel · Leather · Electronics
most exposed consumer categories
Pass-through concentrates in import-heavy goods. Apparel and footwear carry the highest tariff-to-value ratios, electronics absorb the largest dollar impact, and durables see delayed pass-through as inventory turns over.
Figures are long-run equilibrium estimates. Short-run effects on inflation and trade volumes depend on implementation timing, retaliation, and Federal Reserve response.